
This is a meta-comment on Erik’s post and the subsequent thread on AOC possibly running for president in 2028.
It may be that in general victory has a thousand fathers while defeat is an orphan, but pretty much the opposite holds when it comes to punditry, amateur or professional. Political obsessives love to obsess about nothing so much as exactly why their party lost an election, especially a presidential election, and this tic expresses itself in what I find to be a very annoying way, which is this: Everyone presents their seat of the pants explanation as if it were a law of thermodynamics.
Example: Clinton and Harris lost to Trump because they are women and in the latter case a woman of color. This assertion, which is usually treated by those who make it as a self-evident fact, is basically just a guess, and not a very plausible one in my view. The reason its so superficially plausible is that it depends on the simple formula that since there’s a whole lot of racism and misogyny in American culture, a woman who loses an election to a man, and especially a non-white woman who loses to a white man, has lost because of all the racism and misogyny. It’s superficially plausible, but it’s also extremely superficial, period, because:
(1) The political science data suggest strongly that being a woman is not, all other things being equal, a disadvantage for candidates running against men. Now you can always say the presidency is different, but the evidence against this is that Clinton got three million more votes than Trump and lost (barely) on a freak EC distribution, and, when you take the massively anti-incumbent atmosphere in 2024 everywhere around the world into account, Harris actually did very well, losing one of the closer presidential elections in US history. So you have a sample of two, which by itself is very little meaning, and the evidence from that sample is at best very equivocal in regard to the hypothesis that gender and race were the decisive factors against the two candidates.
(2) Without re-litigating the whole thing I would bet all my LoomCoin and also a bunch of real money that Biden would have done MUCH worse than Harris, even without the catastrophe of the debate. Polls even from early in the cycle consistently indicated that the vast majority of DEMOCRATS didn’t want him to run again, for reasons that in retrospect are incredibly obvious, ESPECIALLY in a radically anti-incumbent context. The point here is this: if the debate hadn’t happened, or happened in October when it was too late to do anything about it, or hadn’t been a disaster, Biden would still have lost, by a lot, and I’ll bet all that LoomCoin on another proposition as well, which is all the people who are so certain that Harris lost because she was a woman POC would be saying that of course Biden got killed, who the hell thinks that the right strategy for Democrats in 2024 (a party of women and POC) was to run a 117-year-old white guy who might as well have had ESTABLISHMENT tattooed on his forehead? “Obviously” the Democrats’ only chance would have been to run a young charismatic woman of color, like oh I don’t know . . . AOC.
See how easy it is to play the counterfactual game?
(3) Yes some people are going to vote against a candidate because she’s a woman. We have a name for such voters: Republicans. The same holds for non-white candidates. Yes this is hyperbole: voters do exist who would have voted for the Democrat but for their racism/misogyny. Nevertheless although I would hate to give David Broder and Cokie Roberts heart attacks, in the year 2026 the Republican party is now the all but official home for racists and misogynists, and — here’s the key point — some people who otherwise wouldn ‘t vote at all, or would vote for a not obviously insane “moderate” Republican — like Donald Trump in 2016, when he was a “moderate” in the eyes of moron swing voters and reactionary centrists but I repeat myself — will vote for the Democrat if she’a a woman, and/or a woman of color. Because there are huge numbers of people in America who would desperately like to see a woman and especially a woman of color as president for extremely legitimate reasons. Energizing those people to at a minimum get out and vote, and ideally to be deeply invested in working toward electing that person, is extremely important. Side note: AFAICT the main evidence for Obama being some sort of transcendent generational political talent, as is so often claimed, is that a black man named Barack Hussein Obama got himself elected president in America. But this is question begging, because it assumes Obama’s race and “foreign/terroristic”-sounding name hurt him in his elections rather than helped him, and for all the reasons laid out in this post that’s completely unclear to put it mildly.
(4) Now, does the energizing the base component of nominating a woman/woman of color cancel out or more than compensate for the racism/misogyny effect? Guess what, nobody knows, because these things are complicated. But I would consider it a huge positive for AOC, or someone like her, to be elected president rather than Generic White Guy Flavor of the Month (hi Gavin), or even the more exotic models in the same genre, like Ossoff and Buttigieg. So unless somebody can produce some sort of actual EVIDENCE that being a woman and/or a POC is an actual negative for a Democratic presidential candidate, I’m going to support AOC, should she choose to run, for all the obvious reasons why it would be fantastic for her to be president.
(5) Some further complications: Is it a net positive that AOC is, to put it indelicately, hot? (OK Washington hot but still). I would like to think so, but again these things are always complex. Some people, lets call them men, are going to vote for AOC because of their boners, but some people will vote against her BECAUSE she’s very conventionally attractive. Plenty of social science indicates conventionally attractive women can have problems getting taken seriously in high status positions, because of the assumption that pretty women are dumb and got where they are only because of their looks. Misogyny is real complicated in other words, just like racism. Similarly, will the fact that AOC is so young help her or hurt her on net? Again, who knows? We don’t like candidates to be too old, obviously, especially after the recent series of unfortunate events, but we don’t want them to be too young, either, because inexperience is bad and scary, especially in a president, although not as scary as actual dementia as we are learning every day. We want them to be just right. How old is that? Science says 47 years and seven months* but you can’t have everything.
(6) Finally I want to address the issue of AOC being too left. What’s funny about this is you know who is too left for the kind of people who are influenced by the right wing scream machine? Joe Biden, that’s who. The thing about the Republican party having turned into an unhinged fascism loving machine is that “too left” is almost meaningless in American political discourse at this point. Who exactly is NOT going to vote for the Democrat is in 2028 against Trump or Crypto-Trump because the candidate is “too left?” Yes such people exist, as I’m only too well aware — I have a whole theory, you’ve probably never heard of it — but such people by definition are moronic random number generators whose voting preferences are so completely confused and irrational that trying to pick a candidate that will appeal to them is like trying to select a sonnet that will appeal to a golden retriever.
Which is all to say that I’m all in on the idea of AOC in 2028, although ultimately I’m of course completely 100% behind anybody the Democratic party might nominate because come on. But I see no reason NOT to support AOC’s candidacy, should it manifest, and most especially I consider her gender and race/ethnicity to be huge positives for me personally, while being essentially irrelevant or close to it for purely pragmatic reasons of electability, because of the complexity of the various countervailing factors. In other words, why the hell not?
*Joke
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